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The avocado market is giving restaurant owners and chefs headaches due to supply constraints and increasing costs. It is crucial to understand what’s going on with the avocado market for planning your menu and managing costs effectively.
Here’s the rundown:
Mexico
Supply:
Harvest projected at 30M lbs. for the next few weeks, with a slow increase expected.
Dry Matter:
Average 24%.
Size Distribution:
Predominantly small fruit (70% pack-out of sizes 60, 70, 84).
Issues:
Growers are delaying harvest of small fruit, leading to shortages, especially for sizes 70 and 84. Expect to substitute with size 60 or larger to fulfill orders.
Storage:
Best stored at 40°F.
California
Supply:
Revised estimate at 250M lbs., with 40M lbs. extra.
Harvest:
Decline expected through August, with 85% of the crop already harvested.
Dry Matter:
Average 33%.
Size Distribution:
Heavy on size 48 (36%) and size 60 (19%).
Peru
Supply:
Regular shipments into NJ, expected through August.
Size Distribution:
Predominantly size 40 and smaller.
Availability:
Some sizes may be available as substitutes for Mexican fruit.
Short-Term Outlook
Pricing:
Significant increase, with prices for sizes 48 and 60 up by over $15 in the last week.
Demand:
Remains strong despite declining harvest.
Supply Constraints:
Tight supply of size 70 due to insufficient harvest from Mexico. Mexican harvests are limited by dry matter maturity standards.
Overall Trend:
Tight supply and rising prices expected until more Mexican fruit becomes available.
Long-Term Outlook
Market Dynamics:
A three-tiered market is expected to emerge once the Mexican Loca crop is fully operational.
Sizes 70 and 84:
Promotable prices.
Size 60:
Mid-tier pricing.
Sizes 48 and larger:
Higher prices.
Availability:
Expect ample supply of sizes 60 and 70.
This information is courtesy of Riviera Produce.
Recommendations for Restaurant Owners
1. Menu Planning:
Consider adjusting your menu to accommodate the sizes that are more readily available.
2. Substitutions:
Be prepared to substitute with larger sizes to meet order requirements.
3. Pricing Adjustments:
Stay informed about price changes and adjust your menu pricing accordingly.
4. Supplier Communication:
Maintain close communication with your suppliers to stay updated on availability and expected deliveries.
By staying informed and adaptable, you can navigate the current avocado shortage while continuing to offer quality dishes to your customers.
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